• Rationale: Smiley Face ticks many boxes: encouraged by tipster support (strong second‑day backing), a promising debut, and the prospect of improvement. The early odds (11/8) suggest market confidence. 
• Expected odds / SP range: Around 11/8 (~1.375) in early markets; should comfortably fit under your 2/1 ceiling.
1. Inexperience / first fight under pressure — being a 2yo in a novice, may be undone by nerves or early errors.
2. Stronger newcomers — late entries or more exposed rivals might outdo expectations.
3. Draw, pace or ground quirks — if the track or early fractions don’t suit his running style, he could struggle.
4. Market drift / support shifts — should his odds drift before the off, the implied confidence weakens.
Get free tips, latest news and articles, and discover strategies of tipping experts by subscribing to our newsletter.