• Has delivered recently at the same course & distance, showing aptitude for the layout.
• Despite a 6 lb penalty, still considered strong (“Bet of the Day”) by tipsters, indicating confidence.
• Jockey booking / stable form likely supportive (implied by tip prominence).
• Likely odds range:
• Could be between 2/1 to 5/6 (or possibly shorter, depending on market support).
1. The 6 lb penalty may bite if rivals have unexposed improvement.
2. If the ground or pace doesn’t suit (e.g. slow early fractions or sticky going).
3. If the market undervalues one of the other runners who improves sharply.
4. Being back to back at the same track might increase pressure / predictability for rivals.
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